Timing Windows

Kevin Cazelles, David Beauchesne, Tyler Tunney & Kevin McCann

2024-12-08

Agenda

1. Overall progress update (15 min)

2. Shiny App: idealised version vs MVP (1h)

3. Food webs and timing windows concepts (1h)

4. Risk calculator concepts (1h)

5. Grant application (1h)

6. Alliance grant (15min)

Overall progress update

Update

• Shiny updates
• We had a good meeting with DFO
• We froze developement on the Shiny App after the meeting with DFO
• We hired someone to harvest data
• We worked on the theoretical aspects of the contract

Shiny App: idealised version vs MVP

Updates

• Shiny App available online
  • https://insileco.shinyapps.io/timingwindowscalculator/
• Shiny App working with mock data

Discussions

• 📢 Final list of features

Food webs and timing windows

Insights from litterature

• 📖 Kéfi S, et al. 2019. Advancing our understanding of ecological stability. Ecology Letters 22:1349–1356. DOI: 10.1111/ele.13340.

Insights from litterature

• Multiple perturbations understudied

  Although multiple types of disturbances acting simultaneously are a defining feature of global environmental change (e.g. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005; Piggott et al. 2015), this has been largely neglected since studies typically study a system’s response to one or two perturbations (1.4 perturbations studied per paper on average […])

• 📖 Kéfi S, et al. 2019. Advancing our understanding of ecological stability. Ecology Letters 22:1349–1356. DOI: 10.1111/ele.13340.

Insights from litterature

• Characteristics of the perbabtion is understudied
  • importance of perturbation duration:
    • 📖 Ratajczak Z, et al. 2017. The interactive effects of press/pulse intensity and duration on regime shifts at multiple scales. Ecological Monographs 87:198–218. DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1249.

• 📖 Kéfi S, et al. 2019. Advancing our understanding of ecological stability. Ecology Letters 22:1349–1356. DOI: 10.1111/ele.13340.

Insights from litterature

• Better understanding on the role of species.

abundant species tend to govern the short-term recovery, while rare species often dominate the long-term recovery.

• 📖 Arnoldi J-F, et al., 2018. How ecosystems recover from pulse perturbations: A theory of short- to long-term responses. Journal of Theoretical Biology 436:79–92. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.10.003.

Insights from litterature

• Opportunities to study structured perturbations (McCann)

• Structure:

  • Spatial : nearshore/offshore
  • Temporal: winter/spring
  • Life stage: juvenile/adult
  • Combinations of the abvementionned

Stage-structured food-webs

• 📖 Caskenette AL, McCann KS. 2017. Biomass Reallocation between Juveniles and Adults Mediates Food Web Stability by Distributing Energy Away from Strong Interactions. PLOS ONE. 10.1371/journal.pone.0170725.
• 📖 Mougi A. 2017. Persistence of a stage-structured food-web. Scientific Reports. 10.1038/s41598-017-11686-z.
• 📖 de Roos AM. 2021. Dynamic population stage structure due to juvenile–adult asymmetry stabilizes complex ecological communities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 10.1073/pnas.2023709118.
• 📖 Barbier M, Loreau M. 2019. Pyramids and cascades: a synthesis of food chain functioning and stability. Ecology Letters. 10.1111/ele.13196.
  • allometric + gradient of self regulation
  • 📖 Quévreux P, Barbier M, Loreau M. 2021. Synchrony and Perturbation Transmission in Trophic Metacommunities. The American Naturalist. 10.1086/714131.

Stage-structured food-webs

• Self regulation + FR type II
• PA add PJ have non overlapping niche, Biomass Reallocation
• Simple enough, a good start.
• Straightforward to weight the importance of stage structured

• 📖 Caskenette AL, McCann KS. 2017. Biomass Reallocation between Juveniles and Adults Mediates Food Web Stability by Distributing Energy Away from Strong Interactions. PLOS ONE. 10.1371/journal.pone.0170725.

Stage-structured food-webs

• Self regulation + FR type I
• random foodwebs, random niche overlap, random ontogenic niche shift
• Generalized

• 📖 Mougi A. 2017. Persistence of a stage-structured food-web. Scientific Reports. 10.1038/s41598-017-11686-z.

Stage-structured food-webs

• PA add PJ have overlapping niche (same prey, same pred)
• asymmetry between juveniles and adults
  • in foraging
  • in vulnerability to predation
• maturation and reproduction stop when food availability drops when basic maintenance costs not covered
• Generalized (niche model-ish foodwebs)
• Life-stage structured self regulation

• 📖 📖 de Roos AM. 2021. Dynamic population stage structure due to juvenile–adult asymmetry stabilizes complex ecological communities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 10.1073/pnas.2023709118.

First step

First step

• spatially structured perturbations
• temporaly structured perturbations
  • forcing function for reproductive param

Risk calculator concepts

Grant application

What should we do next?

• Get data from DFO
• Support for Climate change
• Work closely to Jon to do the modelling
• Work on telemetry data

Alliance grant

Is there something we could work on via the Alliance?

End of the slides