Timing Windows Calculator

Kevin Cazelles, David Beauchesne & Kevin McCann

2024-11-15

Timing Windows

Kevin Cazelles, David Beauchesne & Kevin McCann

2024-11-15

inSileco

Context

Timing windows are

  • mitigation measures
  • highly variable in Canada
  • designed for one or more species
  • based on:
    • timing of life processes
    • vulnerability to WUA
    • environmental conditions

Context

Timing windows must be

  • conceptually extended to include spatio-temporal data
  • conceptually extended to support stage-structured data
  • conceptually extended to community / food webs
  • computed transparently with a consistent and robust risk assessment framework based on past and recent data
  • highly adaptable

Context

  • We propose to extend the conceptual framework and to design a Timing Windows Calculator

  • The Timing Windows Calculator will assess the risk of WUAs on fish and habitats and propose optimized timing windows for in situ interventions that minimize ecological risks.

  • The Timing Windows Calculator could be a valuable tool to FFHPP regulatory review biologist.

Today’s meeting

Goal: detail our plan and progress and get feedback on the approach and user interface


Plan

  1. Timing Windows Calculator
  2. Data Science & Engineering
  3. Conceptual Developments

Timing Windows Calculator

Timing Windows Calculator

Risk Management Approach

  • Establish Context: Define the environmental context for each lake or river.
  • Identify Risks: Identify risks to fish life processes and habitats based on WUA pressures.
  • Analyze Risks: Analyze the risks based on available data and local species life processes.
  • Evaluate Risks: Evaluate the impact of risks on fish populations and habitats.
  • Treat Risks: Propose timing windows as mitigation measures to reduce exposure and vulnerability.

Timing Windows Calculator

Application

  1. Waterbody selection
  2. Species selection
  3. WUA selection
  4. Timing windows calculation
  5. Risk assessment output
  6. Timing windows proposal

Data Science & Engineering

Data Science & Engineering

Data-driven assessments


Data Science & Engineering

National dataset for Timing Windows assessments

Data tables:

  • Waterbodies
  • Species
  • Life processes
  • Interactions
  • Traits
  • WUA
  • Stressors

Data Science & Engineering

Harvesting and integration

  1. Harvest open data at national/global scale
  2. Harvest in situ data
  3. Gap-fil missing knowledge
  4. Construct National Timing Windows Database
    1. Large-scale data
    2. Modeling data
    3. Empirical data

Data Science & Engineering

Practical workplan

  • Waterbodies
    • Physico-chemical properties
  • Species
    • Master list (226 species)
    • Target list (~30 species)
    • Occurrences (GBIF; ~400 000)
    • Traits (including life processes)
      • FishBase
      • Litterature
  • Lake-specific ecological data
    • Habitats
    • Life processes
  • WUA
    • WUA / stressors data
  • Sensitivity
    • species / stressors data
  • Legislation for status quo

Live demo

Conceptual Developments

Conceptual Developments

  1. Assessing optimal timing windows for freshwater interventions through a cumulative risk framework
  2. Effect of perturbations on a stage-structured spatial foodweb

Strategy:

  • Initiate work and reflections on the next steps following project completion, assuming that there is interest to continue developing how timing windows are assessed for environmental impact assessments

Timing windows & cumulative risk

  • Waterbody (\(W_x\))
  • Species (\(Sp_i\))
  • Stressors (\(St_j\))
  • Sensitivity (\(\mu_{i,j}\))


\[TWR_{x,i,j} = \sum_i \sum_j Sp_{x,i} * St_{x,j} * \mu_{i,j}\]

To consider:

  • Time
  • Life processes
  • Habitat sensitivity

Timing windows & cumulative risk

Timing windows & cumulative risk

Timing windows & cumulative risk

Timing windows & cumulative risk

Timing windows & cumulative risk

Timing windows & cumulative risk

Anticipated benefits

  • Flexible
  • Modular
  • Data quality (low / high)
  • Data type (binary / continuous / spatial)
  • Integration with cumulative framework
  • Spatially explicit assessment

Perturbations on stage-structured spatial foodwebs

Perturbations on stage-structured spatial foodwebs

Perturbations on stage-structured spatial foodwebs

Perturbations on stage-structured spatial foodwebs

Perturbations on stage-structured spatial foodwebs

Anticipated benefits

  • Integrating food webs to timing windows assessment
  • Understanding how disturbance spread to other:
    • life stages
    • species
  • Improved assessment of timing windows at the scale of ecosystems

Thank you!